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How WINFACTR sees a game

A win probability is only useful when you can understand the football behind it.

Step 1
Data
Results, rosters, availability, schedule and conditions.
Step 2
Measurements
Each team compared unit against unit.
Step 3
Views
Separate models weigh the measurements.
Step 4
Probability
One WINFACTR win probability, with the top reasons.

Recent performance

How efficiently each team has played, including the situations behind the headline results.

Size and strength

How a roster's physical profile compares with the opponent at the positions that meet on the field.

Speed and athleticism

Verified testing and movement traits compared with other players at the same position.

Who is likely to play

Roster depth, expected roles and how much each player has actually been on the field.

Injuries and availability

Practice participation and player status that can change the balance of a matchup.

Position-group battles

The offensive line against the defensive front, receivers against the secondary and other direct matchups.

Travel and recovery

Distance, time-zone changes, short weeks and extra rest before kickoff.

Game conditions

Weather near kickoff plus the stadium surface, roof and altitude.

Recent performance provides a familiar starting point. Beyond-the-box-score measurements add roster, availability, matchup and game context. WINFACTR weighs those views together, shows the reasons behind the result and updates the outlook when meaningful new information arrives.

Outputs are probability estimates, never guarantees or betting advice.
Every probability is paired with the measurable factors that produced it.
Data that has not been ingested is shown as unavailable — never estimated or invented.
Published predictions are fixed at kickoff and checked against the final result, including misses.
Changes to the system are recorded so older predictions remain understandable.

No changes have been recorded yet.

See the full method

A free WINFACTR account shows everything the system measures, how the probability is built and the rules every prediction follows.

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